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Market demand and planning of lubricating oil industry


Lubricants are widely used. But according to the application field, lubricating oil can be divided into industrial lubricating oil and traffic lubricating oil. For a long time, transportation lubricating oil accounts for the main part of lubricating oil demand, accounting for about 58%, and industrial oil demand accounts for about 42%. Industrial and transportation lubricants are subdivided into many industries. Lubricating oil is an important part of petroleum and chemical industry. It is a barometer of the rapid development of industry. It is closely related to the development of macro-economy, automobile, machinery, transportation and other industries. The industry chain of lubrication industry is basically perfect, mainly divided into upstream, middle and downstream links. The upstream of the industrial chain is the primary oil refining industry and additive industry, the midstream of the industrial chain is lubricant manufacturing, and the downstream of the industrial chain is the automotive industry, shipbuilding, engineering machinery, energy and chemical industry and other lubricant application industries.
According to the data from 2013 to 2018, the gross industrial output value of the lubrication industry is basically consistent with the GDP growth. With the adjustment of domestic industrial structure and the slowdown of industrial growth, the consumption demand of lubricating oil in China will slow down. Automotive lubricants as an important pillar of the lubrication industry, with the increasing emphasis on energy conservation and environmental protection, there is an urgent need to open more sophisticated technology, which poses a greater challenge to the cost of the industry. Industry enterprises, especially multinational lubricant enterprises, also put forward higher technical R & D requirements for domestic lubricant enterprises. According to the data from 2013 to 2018, the gross industrial output value of the lubricating oil industry is basically consistent with the GDP growth.
In terms of industry supply, in 2018, the total output of the national lubricating oil market was about 6.41 million tons. According to the data, as of the first half of 2019, the stock of base oil market was 963316 tons, with more new production capacity and more market supply. Under the condition of flat sales, the stock increased by 2.1% year on year. In addition, at present, the output of lubricating oil shows a steady growth trend. It is estimated that the output of lubricating oil will reach 6.296 million tons in 2019 and 8.4 million tons in 2024. With the increasing proportion of China's economy in the world and the successful economic transformation, the national consumption of lubricating oil will reach or exceed the global per capita level, and the demand for lubricating oil will maintain a stable growth. In the next few years, the lubricating oil market will grow at an average annual growth rate of nearly 3.5%. By 2020, the total demand of the lubricating oil market will exceed 10 million tons, among which the demand for automotive lubricating oil will further increase.
From the current domestic demand, the development prospect of China's lubricating oil market is still very considerable. Under the influence of energy saving policy and energy crisis, the proportion of energy-saving and environment-friendly industrial lubricants will be greatly increased, the product structure of domestic industrial lubricants will be greatly changed, environmental protection and energy saving will become the theme of the development of industrial lubricants enterprises, and the consideration of product quality will become the leading concept for the industry to choose lubricant brands Environmental friendly industrial lubricating oil products will usher in huge business opportunities. In the future, the competition of lubricant industry will gradually abandon the low-end price competition, and then turn into the competition of products and brands. The demand of customers will gradually transform to customization and refinement, which brings new challenges to the technical service ability of lubricant enterprises. Extensive strategic cooperation with automobile industry and industrial customers will help lubricant enterprises to further improve their service ability and better meet the customized needs of customers.
In terms of industry supply and demand, the lubricant market has many industry brands, overcapacity and oversupply. In recent years, both the proportion and the demand of industrial lubricants are gradually declining, especially due to the impact of environmental protection policies, industrial production is obviously affected, and the oil consumption is also slowly declining. Although the demand and proportion of vehicle oil have gradually increased, the growth rate has slowed down, and this cake has long been coveted by all parties. Therefore, at the stage of steady development of the overall market, manufacturers with certain brand benefits and sales channels are expected to further seize and integrate the market.